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Anyone can threat model, and everyone should learn. You threat model to have a wider picture of potential threats and a plan to execute if unluckily you are attacked. The threats are evolving, changing tactics, and exceeding our imaginations.
Learn the importance of threat modeling, its methodologies, and everything you must know to catch the problem before it starts.
What is Threat Modeling?
Threat modeling is a structured and systematic approach that allows us to identify and evaluate potential security risks and vulnerabilities in software systems, applications, or networks. Threat modeling is an architectural design that helps us design a robust and resilient system to defend against cyber threats.
Threat Modeling in Cyber Security
Organizations, businesses, and even individuals are at risk of falling prey to malicious attacks that can lead to data breaches, financial losses, and reputational damage.
Threat modeling is a proactive and preventive measure to counter these risks effectively. Rather than waiting for and responding to an attack, threat modeling empowers us to stay ahead of the game by:
- Identifying potential threats and vulnerabilities early in the development process; we can implement targeted security measures to prevent attacks before they occur.
- Shifts from a reactive cybersecurity approach to a proactive one.
- Saves valuable time and resources
- Fosters a culture of security consciousness and responsible digital citizenship.
Why Do You Need Threat Modeling: Stats is the Answer
- 300,000 thousand new species of malware are created daily. (Source: Web Arx Security)
- Over 60% of financial service companies have 1000+ sensitive files accessible to all employees, dated till 2022. (Source: Varonis)
- The cost of a data breach in 2022 averaged over $3.80 million. (Source: Cybercrime Magazine)
- Uber lost the information of 57 million riders and drivers after a data breach in 2016. (Source: Tech Crunch)
- Over 550 US healthcare organizations experienced data breaches in 2022. (Source: Health Hit Security)
Source: HHS
- About 14.5 billion email spam campaigns accounted for over 45% of the email traffic. (Source: Statista)
- Ransomware is the third most used form of cyber attack in 2022. (Source: Panda Security)
- Globally, 30,000 websites are hacked daily. (Source: Web Arx Security)
- More than ½ the organizations with IoT devices have no security measures. (Source: IoT World)
- In 2022, businesses around the globe face a ransomware attack every 11 seconds. (Source: Dataprot)
- 23,000 DDoS attacks are happening somewhere on the internet every 24 hours. (Source: Net Scout)
- In 2022, 43% of cyberattacks target small businesses. (Source: Forbes)
- 74% of organizations worldwide claim they are susceptible to insider threats. (Source: Bitglass)
- By 2031, ransomware will cost the world up to $265 billion. (Source: Forbes)
- Global spending on cybersecurity sat at $16.6 billion in the 2022 first quarter. (Source: Statista)
- The most common type of ransomware is CryptoLocker – 52% of all. (Source: Safety Detectives)
Source of all statistical data: TechJury
According to Arcserve report,
“Cybersecurity Ventures predicts that the total amount of data stored in the cloud — which includes public clouds operated by vendors and social media companies (think Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Twitter, etc.), government-owned clouds that are accessible to citizens and businesses, private clouds owned by mid-to-large-sized corporations, and cloud storage providers — will reach 100 zettabytes by 2025, or 50 percent of the world’s data at that time, up from approximately 25 percent stored in the cloud in 2015.”
The amount of data of about 100 zettabytes needs to be reliably stored. In the near future, cyber intruders will be very active in exploiting sensitive information and essential data. The need to have an efficient threat model has become absolute.
Source: Arcserve
Threat Modeling as a Component of Strategic Software Development
Integrating threat modeling into the business strategy software development life cycle has a multitude of benefits, ensuring secure and reliable applications in the long run:
Risk mitigation
Threat modeling allows developers to anticipate potential risks and vulnerabilities, enabling them to implement suitable countermeasures before deployment. This approach significantly reduces the chances of security incidents and data breaches.
Cost-effective security
By addressing security concerns early in the development process, organizations can avoid costly post-deployment fixes and minimize potential financial losses resulting from cyber-attacks.
Collaboration and communication
Threat modeling encourages collaboration between stakeholders, including developers, security experts, architects, and business representatives. This cross-functional approach fosters better communication and understanding of security requirements, leading to more robust and well-rounded solutions.
Continuous improvement
It is not a one-time event but an ongoing process. As new threats emerge and the system evolves, continuous threat modeling helps to adapt and improve the security posture over time.
Compliance and regulation
For organizations operating in regulated industries, threat modeling can aid in meeting security compliance requirements and demonstrating a commitment to safeguarding sensitive data and assets.
Learning the Process of Threat Modeling
By systematically analyzing risks through threat modeling, organizations can implement adequate security measures to protect their critical assets and data. Let’s explore the five key steps involved in the threat modeling process.
- Asset identification
The first step in threat modeling is identifying and understanding the critical assets and data needing protection. These assets can be tangible, like physical infrastructure, servers, or intellectual property, or intangible, like customer data, financial information, or business processes.
Organizations can prioritize their security efforts by understanding the value and sensitivity of these assets. For example, customer data and trade secrets might be more valuable and sensitive than public information on a company’s website. Once the assets are identified, their importance in the overall system is assessed.
- Creating a system overview
This step involves analyzing the architecture and design of the system. Architects and developers play a crucial role in this step, as they can provide insights into the system’s components, interactions, and data flow.
Data flow diagrams are a valuable tool in this process, helping to visualize how data moves through the system. Understanding the data flow is essential because it identifies potential points of compromise or unauthorized access.
- Identifying threats
Threat identification is the heart of the threat modeling process. It involves exploring different types of threats that could potentially exploit vulnerabilities in the system. These threats can be broadly categorized into
External
External threats originate from outside the organization, often from malicious actors like hackers or cybercriminals.
Internal
Internal threats come from within the organization, such as employees or contractors who may accidentally or intentionally cause harm.
Insider threats
Insider threats are more specific and refer to trusted individuals who deliberately misuse their access to the system for malicious purposes.
Organizations often leverage threat intelligence to enhance threat identification, which involves gathering information about potential threats from external sources.
Understanding the perspective of potential adversaries helps organizations stay one step ahead in the cybersecurity battle.
Source: Oreilly
- Assessing vulnerabilities
The next step is to assess vulnerabilities within the system that these threats could exploit.
“Vulnerabilities are weaknesses in the system’s design, implementation, or configuration that could allow unauthorized access or compromise the integrity of the assets.”
Common vulnerabilities and weaknesses include software bugs, misconfigurations, lack of input validation, and weak authentication mechanisms. To prioritize mitigation efforts, the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) is often used. CVSS provides a standardized method for assessing and scoring vulnerabilities based on their severity and impact on the system.
- Risk ranking and prioritization
With the identified threats and assessed vulnerabilities, the final step is to rank and prioritize risks. This involves evaluating the potential impact and likelihood of each threat scenario and vulnerability.
Source: Mitre
A risk matrix is often used for this purpose, where risks are categorized based on their severity (e.g., high, medium, or low) and the probability of occurrence. This helps decision-makers allocate resources effectively to address the most critical risks first.
Threat Modeling Methodologies
Microsoft’s STRIDE Model
Microsoft’s STRIDE model is a popular threat modeling methodology used to analyze potential threats in software and system design systematically. It provides a structured approach to identifying and mitigating security risks by considering six main threat categories:
| Spoofing | This threat involves attackers impersonating a trusted person. |
| Tampering | Threats involve unauthorized modification or alteration of data or code. Attackers may attempt to change the functionality of a system, inject malicious code, or tamper with critical files. |
| Repudiation | Refers to situations where an attacker can perform actions without leaving any trace or evidence, making it challenging to identify the perpetrator. This could lead to issues with accountability and non-repudiation. |
| Information disclosure | Involves the exposure of sensitive or confidential information to unauthorized parties. Attackers may exploit vulnerabilities to access data they shouldn’t have access to. |
| Denial of service (DoS) | Disrupts the availability of a system or service by overwhelming it with excessive requests or malicious traffic, causing temporary closure to access the service. |
| Elevation of privilege | Involves attackers gaining higher privileges or access rights than they should have. |
The system’s design and architecture are analyzed thoroughly to apply the STRIDE model in threat modeling. Each component is evaluated against these six threat categories to identify potential vulnerabilities and threats.
Source: Microsoft
By knowing the specific risks associated with each category, developers and security teams can implement appropriate countermeasures and security controls to safeguard the system against possible attacks.
OCTAVE Allegro
The Operationally Critical Threat, Asset, and Vulnerability Evaluation (OCTAVE) Allegro is a risk-focused threat modeling methodology developed by CERT (Computer Emergency Response Team) at Carnegie Mellon University.
It provides a comprehensive approach to identifying and addressing security risks across an organization’s entire infrastructure.
OCTAVE Allegro is designed to integrate with enterprise risk management processes. It involves the following steps:
| Preparation | Involves defining the scope of the assessment, assembling the threat modeling team, and gathering relevant information about assets, critical business processes, and existing security measures. |
| Information collection | Collects detailed information about assets, their dependencies, and the potential associated threats and vulnerabilities. |
| Threat analysis | The team thoroughly analyzes the identified threats and vulnerabilities, considering their potential impact on the organization. |
| Vulnerability assessment | The vulnerability assessment focuses on determining the weaknesses in the organization’s security measures and processes. |
| Risk assessment | Risks are analyzed based on their likelihood of occurrence and potential impact on the organization’s operations and objectives. |
| Risk mitigation | The team develops and implements risk mitigation strategies to address the identified vulnerabilities and reduce the overall risk to an acceptable level. |
By integrating OCTAVE Allegro into enterprise risk management, organizations can better understand their security posture and develop effective risk mitigation strategies that align with their business objectives.
PASTA (Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis)
PASTA is a threat modeling methodology that mimics real-world attack scenarios to assess security risks in applications and systems. It is particularly advantageous in agile environments with rapid and continuous development cycles.
Phases of PASTA include:
| Planning | In the planning phase, the threat modeling team defines the scope of the assessment, identifies the key stakeholders, and sets objectives for the analysis. |
| Discovery | The team gathers information about the application or system to be assessed, including its architecture, components, data flows, and potential threats. |
| Mapping | The team creates threat models by mapping the discovered information to potential attack scenarios. The goal is to simulate real-world threats and understand how they could exploit vulnerabilities. |
| Reporting | The final phase involves documenting the findings of the threat analysis, including identified vulnerabilities and recommended countermeasures. The report helps stakeholders understand the security risks and make informed decisions for risk mitigation. |
PASTA is well-suited for agile development environments because it aligns with the iterative and dynamic nature of the development process. It allows security teams to keep pace with continuous changes and updates to applications or systems. By simulating realistic attack scenarios, PASTA helps identify potential risks that might otherwise be overlooked in traditional threat modeling approaches.
OWASP Threat Dragon
OWASP Threat Dragon is an open-source threat modeling tool designed to help software developers and security professionals identify and manage security threats in their applications. It is part of the Open Web Application Security Project (OWASP) and is built on the widely-used Microsoft Threat Modeling Tool (MTMT).
Key Features of OWASP Threat Dragon:
- Intuitive interface: OWASP Threat Dragon offers an easy-to-use interface which helps you to create and manage threat models efficiently.
- Data flow diagrams: The tool allows you to create data flow diagrams to visualize how data moves through the application, aiding in identifying potential threats and vulnerabilities.
- Threat libraries: Threat Dragon includes a threat library that contains a comprehensive list of common threats and vulnerabilities, making it easier for you to identify potential risks.
- Integration with development: It integrates well with the software development process, allowing threat models to be easily updated as the application evolves.
- Collaboration: OWASP facilitates collaboration among team members, enabling multiple stakeholders to contribute to threat modeling and risk assessment.
- OWASP Support: As an OWASP project, Threat Dragon benefits from the expertise and contributions of the OWASP community, ensuring it stays up-to-date with the latest security best practices.
Irius Risk
Irius Risk is a threat modeling platform that enables organizations to proactively identify, assess, and mitigate security risks in their applications and systems. It is designed to integrate threat modeling into the entire software development lifecycle.
Key features of Irius Risk:
- Risk-centric approach: Irius Risk adopts a risk-centric approach to threat modeling, focusing on identifying and mitigating the most critical risks to an organization.
- Interactive threat modeling: The platform allows for interactive threat modeling sessions, enabling multiple stakeholders to participate in identifying potential threats and their impacts.
- Integration with SDLC: Irius Risk integrates with popular development tools and workflows, making incorporating threat modeling into the development process easier.
- Risk analysis and reporting: It provides comprehensive risk analysis and reporting capabilities, allowing organizations to prioritize mitigation efforts based on the severity of identified risks.
- Automated threat library: Irius Risk includes an automated threat library, streamlining the identification of common threats and vulnerabilities.
- Compliance and standards support: The platform supports compliance with various security standards and frameworks, helping organizations adhere to industry best practices.
Threat Modeler
Threat Modeler is a comprehensive threat modeling platform that assists organizations in identifying potential threats and vulnerabilities in their applications and systems.
Key features of Threat Modeler:
- Customizable templates: Threat Modeler provides customizable templates that allow you to create threat models tailored to their specific applications and environments.
- Collaboration and integration: The platform enables collaboration among team members and integrates with existing development and security tools for a seamless workflow.
- Automated analysis: Threat Modeler includes automated analysis capabilities, which help identify potential risks and suggest appropriate countermeasures.
- Integration with security standards: It supports various security standards and compliance frameworks, aiding organizations in meeting regulatory requirements.
- Visualization and reporting: Threat Modeler offers visualizations to help you understand complex threat scenarios and generates detailed reports for stakeholders.
- Continuous threat monitoring: The platform supports ongoing threat monitoring and updates, ensuring that security teams can address new threats and vulnerabilities as they emerge.
Each tool has its unique features and advantages, catering to the diverse needs of different organizations and industries.
Threat Modeling: An Ongoing Process
To make threat modeling effective and impactful, organizations should follow several best practices that foster a proactive and security-conscious approach to risk management.
- Regular Reviews and Updates
Threat landscapes are constantly evolving, with new threats and attack vectors emerging regularly. To stay ahead of potential risks, it’s crucial to conduct regular threat model reviews and updates.
By conducting periodic reviews, organizations can identify and address newly discovered vulnerabilities, adjust threat models based on system updates, and adapt to changes in the threat landscape. This continuous improvement process helps maintain an up-to-date understanding of security risks, enabling timely mitigation measures. Learn from the examples of threat modeling.
- Involving Cross-Functional Teams in the Process
Threat modeling should not be limited to the domain of security professionals alone. Involving cross-functional teams, including developers, architects, business analysts, and other stakeholders, is essential. Each team member brings unique insights into the system’s functionality, design, and business goals.
Collaboration encourages a shared understanding of security risks and helps identify potential threats from different perspectives. Including diverse viewpoints in threat modeling discussions allows for more comprehensive risk assessments and fosters a culture where security is everyone’s responsibility.
- Integrating Threat Modeling into SDLC
To maximize the benefits of threat modeling, it should be seamlessly integrated into the software development lifecycle (SDLC). Threat modeling at the early stages of development ensures that security considerations are present from the outset rather than being treated as an afterthought.
By integrating threat modeling into the SDLC, developers can proactively address potential security issues during the design and coding phases. This approach helps avoid costly security fixes later in the development process and reduces the risk of vulnerabilities entering the production environment.
- Leveraging Automation and Tools for Efficient Threat Modeling
It can be a complex and time-consuming process, especially for large-scale systems. Leveraging automation and specialized threat modeling tools can significantly improve efficiency and accuracy.
Several popular threat modeling tools, as mentioned above offer features that streamline the threat modeling process. These tools can automatically generate data flow diagrams, maintain threat libraries, and even conduct automated analysis of identified threats. Choosing the right tool that aligns with your needs can save time and resources while enhancing the overall effectiveness of threat modeling.
- Creating a security-centric culture: Security awareness training
A security-centric culture is a cornerstone of effective threat modeling. All employees, regardless of their role in the organization, should be aware of the importance of security and their role in safeguarding critical assets and data.
Security awareness training is vital to educate employees about common security risks, phishing attacks, secure coding practices, and the significance of following established security policies.
Moreover, fostering a culture that encourages open communication about security concerns helps surface potential threats and vulnerabilities early, making the threat modeling process more robust and comprehensive.
Carpe diem
Threat modeling is seen as a specialist skill instead it is an ordinary skill. Organizations think that they need an expert force to create the threat modeling process, but in my opinion, it is a version technique. The more you know about basic security, the more efficiently you can have threat intelligence for your organization.
Threat modeling is not only about structural security but an obvious approach to bringing security in the development, operation, and release process of all organizations, irrespective of their size.
One takeaway from this blog: Think like an attacker! Build a threat model for you!
Frequently Asked Questions
The STRIDE is a threat model which helps to identify and divide threats into 6 different types for better mitigation. The types include Spoofing, Tampering, Repudiation, Information Disclosure, Denial of Service DoS, and Elevation of privilege.
The DREAD model is in effect when vulnerabilities and threats are identified and helps to target the threats which can be more dangerous. It ranks the vulnerabilities in terms of danger to get them solved. STRIDE framework works on analysis and first-time identification of potential threats.
Some examples of threat models include:
STRIDE
PASTA,
VAST,
OCTAVE, and
NIST.
Threat modeling tools in cyber security are back that provide an easy assessment of potential risks and vulnerabilities. They are incorporated into the cyber security posture of organizations to make them efficiently secure.
Yes, a reliable VPN with an integrated approach to handling organizational data is the best fit and complements the threat modeling procedure in the best way.
PureVPN
August 1, 2023
2 years ago